How Many Story Points per Sprint

October 27, 2024

5 min read

Filling your Sprint with too many story points? That’s like grabbing everything at a buffet and then regretting the mess on your plate. Smart teams know when to say ‘enough.’

How Many Story Points Per Sprint?

The number of story points per Sprint isn’t fixed; it varies widely based on team size, skill level, and Sprint Goals. Rather than aiming for a specific target, teams use story points to balance workload with current capacity, avoiding overloading.

Think of sprint planning as filling your plate at a buffet. Story points are like a sectioned plate: they guide you to select just enough, helping you balance one main dish and a few sides. Sure, you can pile on more, but those divided sections encourage a reasonable approach, reminding you not to overfill. Story points work the same way—a gentle nudge toward a realistic workload that leaves space to tackle the sprint goal and respond to the unexpected.

Stack of multiple cheeseburgers piled on top of each other, illustrating an overloaded or excessive approach.

Some teams, though, see the plate not as a guide but as a challenge: how high can we stack this thing without it all tumbling down? Picture the strategy—cornbread as structural walls, mashed potatoes as mortar, all forming a crater for the green beans and pork chops. For them, the goal isn’t balance or reason; it’s maximizing every inch, cramming as much as possible onto that plate. The real question becomes: can they eat it all?

If you’re asking how many story points to cram as much as possible onto your plate, I’d gently nudge you to reconsider that approach. But if you want to understand what a realistic amount looks like, an example might shed some light.

How Many Story Points Per Sprint Example?

An example of how many story points to target per Sprint is calculating a six-sprint average velocity. This method offers a starting point but doesn’t guarantee meeting the Sprint Goal.

Imagine you reviewed the last six sprints; your velocities were 23, 13, 26, 32, 37, and 19. Adding these gives 150, and dividing by six lands, you have about 25. So, for a realistic starting point, you might aim for 25 story points—or maybe even a bit less. This way, you’re setting a target with room to breathe rather than stacking your plate to the brim.

If your team is brand new or has recently had a big shake-up, this calculation might not be applicable. In cases like this, consider other ways to set a target velocity that better reflects where your team is.

Wherever your team is, don’t get too focused on perfecting the numbers. Averages can be tricky—use them as a guide, not a rule.

Average Number of Story Points Per Sprint

The average story points per Sprint reflect a team’s unique pace and work history. As an average, it’s only met about half the time, making it unreliable for precise planning.

Let’s go back to our average velocity example: our historic velocities were 23, 13, 26, 32, 37, and 19, which averaged 25. But here’s the catch: only three Sprints met or beat that number. So, if future Sprints look like these, we’ll likely be overloading the team about half the time. It’s a good reminder—averages can be misleading when planning realistic sprint capacity.

Man pouring coffee into multiple cups, symbolizing the need for increased resources when overworking.

The issue isn’t just about carryover—that’s small potatoes. The real problem is that when sprints are overloaded, teams end up pushing at an unsustainable pace, driven by the misconception that a Sprint Backlog is a guarantee, not a forecast. This push often means working late, on weekends, or whatever it takes. And the kicker? Once baked into future planning, this inflated velocity raises the bar even higher, creating a cycle where over-planning becomes the new normal.

An inflated velocity isn’t the only factor to watch out for during Sprint Planning.

What Factors Impact the Number of Story Points a Team Should Plan for in a Sprint?

Factors influencing the story points planned per Sprint include recent team velocity, work composition, scheduled time off, and the Sprint Goal. Ignoring these factors can lead to unrealistic targets, as each Sprint’s unique circumstances affect team capacity and workload.

If you aim to capture historic velocity, look at the last 3-6 sprints—beyond that, things get fuzzy. Why? Recent sprints are more likely to reflect any new processes, shifts in team composition, or organizational changes impacting the team’s flow.

If recent sprints pushed the team too hard, that velocity might need a reality check. Changes in team members can also shift delivery rates. Instead of assuming capacity gains, let real progress guide your planning.

Woman struggling to pack an overflowing suitcase, depicting the challenge of no extra space for emergencies.

Focus on the Sprint Goal above all. It’s not just about completing the Sprint Backlog. Leave room in your capacity for anything extra needed to meet that goal, not just for random Product Backlog Items.

“The Sprint Goal is the single objective for the Sprint.”
…
“If the work turns out to be different than they expected, they collaborate with the Product Owner to negotiate the scope of the Sprint Backlog within the Sprint without affecting the Sprint Goal.”
- Scrum Guide

If you prioritize the Sprint Goal over Sprint Backlog completion, it’s worth asking if story points and velocity still hold the same value.

How Do Story Points Correlate with Team Velocity and Sprint Success?

Story points correlate with team velocity by providing a measurable sprint pace. They support sprint success by helping teams avoid overload. Surprisingly, planning fewer story points can lead to faster delivery by creating flexibility in the Sprint.

Open, empty gift box with a bow, representing the concept of an attractive but lacking or empty outcome.

Real sprint success is about hitting the Sprint Goal—not just checking off every story. Too often, teams get caught up in clearing out the Sprint Backlog, squeezing every ounce of capacity, and avoiding carryover like it’s the plague. But that mindset misses the mark. The real question is: did we achieve the goal? Because completing everything in the backlog doesn’t matter if we still miss the Sprint Goal.

TLDR

The story points targets vary by team size, skill, and Sprint Goal.
Story points are a tool to balance capacity, not to max it out.
Avoid overfilling your “plate” in Sprint Planning; leave room for the unexpected.
Average velocity provides insight but can mislead—don’t treat it as a strict target.
Teams often miss their average velocity about half the time—the definition of average.
Overloading creates unsustainable pacing and inflates velocity expectations.
Sprint Backlog is a forecast, not a guarantee.
A Sprint’s success is delivering on the Sprint Goal, not just clearing the Sprint Backlog.

Grabbing everything at the buffet leads to regret; the same goes for sprint planning. Successful teams balance capacity and keep the focus on meeting the Sprint Goal, not just filling up on story points.