Forecast

Definition of Forecast

A forecast is an estimate of achievable work based on past performance and factors, without commitment.

Pronunciation Spelling

FOR-kast

Example Sentence

The team used historical data and a risk factor to create a forecast for when the epic would be done.

Significance

Agile practitioners should be familiar with the term “forecasting” as it involves predicting or estimating the future delivery of work items based on historical data, team performance, and known factors. It helps in setting realistic expectations, planning, and making informed decisions about project timelines and deliveries in an agile environment. Understanding forecasting methods assists in managing stakeholder expectations and facilitating effective planning.

Additional Resources

• Agile Manifesto
• Scrum Guide
• Quick and Accurate Forecasts With ActionableAgile - ActionableAgile Analytics
• How to Develop a Probabilistic Mindset to Enable Reliable Delivery Commitments
• Monte Carlo Simulations and Forecasting
• Reckoning With Reality With Probabilistic Forecasting
• Monte Carlo — a Matter of Life and Death W/Prateek Singh and Troy Lightfoot From ProKanban.org
• Flow Metrics for Scrum Teams
• When Will It Be Done?: Lean-Agile Forecasting to Answer Your Customers’ Most Important Question
• Practical Kanban: From Team Focus to Creating Value